Welcome to Gold Star Picks! We believe sports betting requires 2 types of information - Historical Betting Statistics, and Game-Specific Information. As an example, let's say the Magic are 3 point underdogs playing home against the Mavericks.
1) Historical Betting Statistics
First off, we'd like to know how the Magic and Mavericks have performed relative the spread all year. And we'd like that information to be as nuanced as possible. Perhaps the Magic are 13-13 ATS, but on average cover by 5 points and had a few unlucky 1-point misses. That would mean the market is proabably undervaluing them. Additionally, maybe the Magic perform much better as home underdogs. Often times it's difficult for the average fan to find out this granular information, which is why we created a visual NBA betting trend applet. Try out the 2019 NBA Regular Season one below.
2) Game-Specific Information
Historical statistics are great to know, but often times the best bets come from having specific non-statistical information about a game. For example, a hardcore Magic fan may know that the Magic are extremely motivated to win this particular game. They may have changed their playing style, and got a key player back from injury. The Mavericks on the other hand may not care as much about this game after having played a nationally televised game against the Lakers the night before. Often times, the average fan doesn't have access to specific information about every team, so the best way to get this information is allow the community to submit it reddit-style and let others vote on the quality of the content. We are currently in the offseason, but check out an NBA and NCAAB example from last year.
Additional Tools
We also offer other two other unique tools. One is a Jai Alai simulator that lets you input players' records, and the program then simulates thousands of games and outputs the predicted results. Another is a Bankroll Mgmt Calculator that gives you a probability distribution of your profits based on your bankroll, expected win percentage, and number of bets.
Reading for Nerds 🤓
Feel free to check out some of the NBA analyses, ideas, education materials, and presentation decks Nathan Lord from Stanford has created. There's also an NFL best bet video analysis in there.
Contact
If you like sports analytics or sports betting and have ideas you'd like to discuss, feel free to reach out to me! realnathanlord@gmail.com